Stability on geopolitical front will boost Nifty in March

TGIF! And why I say that is because the Indian markets managed to recoup losses and closed the week on a positive note. Sensex reclaimed 36K while the Nifty50 closed above 10850 levels.

A series of domestic as well as global triggers kept equity markets across the globe on the edge. To start with we saw an escalation in geopolitical concerns kept investors busy for the most part of the week, but bulls managed to push the index back above 10850 for the Nifty and 36000 on the Sensex.

The final tally – the S&P BSE Sensex closed 196 points higher at 36,063 while the Nifty50 ended at 10,863, up 71 points. On weekly basis, Nifty closed with gains of 0.67 percent while Sensex ended 0.54 percent higher.

India VIX fell down sharply by 9.86 percent at 16.47 levels which is a positive sign for the bulls. However, VIX has to cool down below 16-15 zones to get the smooth ride in the market.

In February, market was weighed down by Indo-Pak tension, trade war concerns, rise in crude oil prices, concerns regarding lenders selling pledge shares, weak GDP data as well as mixed earnings from India Inc.

“Market remained volatile as we saw a spike in India VIX, but if we look at the price, it is still trading in a narrow trading range on a week-on-week basis. We saw Nifty holding on to support levels especially in the beginning of the week which validates the thesis that absence of selling in the market. Absence of selling implies that stock ownership is not in weak hand where panic sale doesn’t get reflected in the price. I believe March serie will be better compared to February” Shailendra Kumar, Chief Investment Officer, Narnolia Financial Advisors told .

Stocks in news

Bharti Airtel fell 3.4 percent amid fundraising plan and after global rating agency, S&P maintained its negative outlook.

Nifty PSU Bank index rallied 2.6 percent after market regulator SEBI exempted buyers of companies under Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code from the open offer.

Zee Entertainment Enterprises climbed 4 percent on a media report saying Comcast is the frontrunner for buying a stake in the company.

Yes Bank was up 2.7 percent after Ravneet Gill has taken charge as MD & CEO. CIMB has upgraded the rating to add and also raised price target to Rs 300 (from Rs 230 earlier) as concerns abated on asset quality and the top management of the bank.

Bajaj Auto (down 1.2 percent) and Escorts (up 2.35 percent) auto sales for the month of February surpassed analyst expectations.

Sales numbers by Eicher Motors (up 0.2 percent), Mahindra & Mahindra (up 0.4 percent), Ashok Leyland (up 0.2 percent) and Maruti Suzuki (up 1.5 percent) missed estimates.

Global Update

On the global front, European markets traded higher, beginning the first trading day of March on a positive note. France’s CAC, Germany’s DAX and Britain’s FTSE were up 0.6-1 percent at the time of publishing this copy.

Asian peers namely Japan’s Nikkei 225 Average (up 1 percent) and China’s Shanghai Composite (up 1.8 percent) and Hang Seng (up 0.63 percent) also ended higher.